Time to Man Up

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Lissen up kids, this is how we did it back in the 60's: no business as usual.  Back then the issue was the VietNam war. 

Today someone is stealing your future, endangering your life - not just economically, but physically.  Time to Man Up, or Human-Up, 

It is time to stand up, shout out, and let them know.   "Them" is anyone hurting you by their actions or their inaction.  Ask, tell, demand a stop to this.  Our degrading economy can be stopped - and our degrading climate can be slowed.

We faced down a war back then.  We all felt the fear.  We were disappearing into a foreign war - and we wanted it to stop.  We disrupted everything, anything.  We had teach-ins where we learned the issues. Some even marched into classrooms, interrupting the the Psych 101 lecturer saying "we should be talking about the war in Viet Nam - because men in this classroom are about to be drafted into a worthless war - your college education means nothing if you are going to die."  And we listened. This happened to me at Boston University in 1968.  All over the country too. Not just the draftable 1-A men, but girl-friends and mothers and fathers and professors. So we got radical.

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Leaflets and alternative press just popped up everywhere. Groups like SNCC, The Mobe. Sometimes we hurriedly planned gatherings. We boycotted anything connected to the war  (even today I cannot patronize Dow chemical - maker of napalm)  Sometimes we wrote political graffiti.  Rallied with bands and speakers and poets and actions on our own.  Some late nights we would take to our bicycles and fire sling shots loaded with heavy glass marbles - smashing out windows of our draftboard.  Back then we faced an illegal, undeclared war that was killing us.  When facing death, any reaction is permitted.  Flag.jpg We took a sheet and painted it into the flag of North Viet Nam (which was banned, even though the war was still undeclared) and then we hoisted it up government offices flag poles... (cut one rope and loop it into the other - so the flag goes up but cannot be pulled down.) so workers arriving in the morning would see a huge flag where the US flag should have been.  We were furious.  So were the authorities. It took a fire dept hook and ladder truck to tear it down, calling more attention to the issue. Every young man faced the draft and faced doom.  Back then presenting yourself as gay would keep you out of the army.

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Friends fled to Canada and I never saw them again.  Many were arrested. And many guys went into the army and I never saw them again. Many shot themselves in the foot.  Fifty-five thousand American men died in a very stupid war. Two million Vietnamese.  Many emerged from the war with vacant stares and souls that never saw again.  And since then, more veterans have died from suicide than died in the war.

WE WERE young and FURIOUS.    We faced a grim future.  You might be furious now because you face a grim future worse than any war.  Your future has been stolen from you.  You have been robbed.  You could study some economics and learn how your financial future has been robbed - maybe you can reclaim that.  But study some science and learn how you have toxic pollution threatening your very lives.  Inexorable global warming is dooming you to a horrible, terrible future.   And if you have children, you will be bringing them into a chaotic world, churning with change and deprivation and a dimming future.

You already know something of global warming and climate destabilization, you just don't know how bad it will be.  Nor just when it will be unfolding.  Find out.  We also used to say "Don't trust anyone over 30".    Well the older generation in power and wealth today are not going to admit to wrong doing.  Old folks want their short future to stay comfortable.   

But your professors know.  Ask them.  Your Oceanography and Atmospheric sciences department know the answer.  Ask them. They have stopped volunteering the news because it is so bad.   They are shell shocked and silent and they will not speak of it unless you ask them directly :  WHAT IS MY FUTURE?  Ask.   You will put them on the spot, because a university is supposed to be one the most hopeful places on earth. They may try to wangle and say "we are not sure" and "we need to study more" - and they may say "it is not really my department"... but none will deny there is horrible warming and a destabilized climate ahead filled with intense catastrophic weather events and a slowly changing world.  And none can deny this means increasing disease, starvation, thirst, forced migrations.. ALL IN YOUR LIFETIME. 

And far worse for your children.  Right here on campus you will find scientists that helped model predictions for the year 2100. It is a nice target to aim for.  And much research likes to point to the year 2100 - the choices are bad, worse and catastrophic.  Not one sane, sober scientist can say everything will be OK.  The ferocious arguments are about when and how bad, not about whether or if warming will happen.  Predictions for 2100 are all based on the number of degrees in warming averaged globally - Right now at least 2.5 degrees C of warming are inevitable.  But recently an MIT study predicted  over 5 degrees of warming by 2100.  And depending on how humans act, the climate models say more than 6 degrees of warming are possible.    The year 2100 is when your children will be adult.  And half-way - by 2050 you will be in the fullness of your life - half way to 2100 is half-bad, half-worse, half-a-catastrophe.

I am here to ask you to wake up and stop the silence.  Man Up.  Human Up

Back then I just tried to stay alive and keep out of a hopeless war,  But today this is a physical dilemma, not a political one.  No one failed to declare a war or started a draft.  They just ignored the dangers and kept poisoning the atmosphere.  Mostly by dumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, the by-product of all our cheap energy civilization and this CO2 is a known, proven, and well studied greenhouse gas.  Ask around.  It warms the atmosphere very slowly, so the destabilized and warmed climate today was triggered by CO2 emitted in the 1940's and 50's.  darkdawncrops.jpg
Your parents and my parents did it.  We didn't know, and that changed into didn't care.  Our ancestors just started pissing into the soup and we never stopped.  And now it is your turn to be served.   And no matter what we do now, much is too late.  We could turn into Adam and Eve, the atmospheric sciences of C02 says warming will continue.

Time to man up.  Human up.  You are facing troubles that you did not ask for and you have every right to be furious.
 
You are starting to get it... March 26th video of a disruptive action at a coal board meeting.  Coal is the very worst future killer - it spews the most CO2 and tons of other stuff.   Coal is the perfect first target for our wrath.  If we do nothing else - for yourself and your children - stop coal completely.

YouTube  - Check it out.


Activists with DC Rising Tide interrupted a coal industry conference on March 26, 2009 to denounce coal.

This tactic is disruption.  No business as usual.  You got it. That was the furious demand we made in the 60's .. "no business as usual".   If you are passive, then your are standing in line for your doom.     Don't roll over and play dead, because we who are older and closer to death do not have to care, you have to care. stand up.

The minimal ask I have for you is to learn the facts of the science.   I am not selling a political stance.  Be warned there are those who promote deliberate falsehoods. I am pointing to a scientific unfolding.  You can and should confirm this for yourself   I invite you to react.  Look at it yourself.  You are in the best place to know and learn and prepare for your future. 

Richard Pauli
March 2009

Richard Pauli is over 30 and not to be trusted. You better check all these facts for yourself.
 [edits:  corrected numbers of war dead]

Addenda:    Cultural commentator and renown cartoonist, Skip Williamson has a terrific description of his friend Abbie Hoffman.   In his blog at Salon he captures the essence of that time.

Culturally and politically 1968 was one of the most rambunctious years in American history. The War in Vietnam had become the longest conflict in U.S. History. And as American casualties passed 30,000 anti-war protesters spilled out larger, louder and angrier than ever in the streets and on campuses nationwide. The Tet Offensive caught U.S, troops by surprise as coordinated attacks by the Viet Cong peppered South Vietnam. At Columbia University students commandeered the University's president's office and held three hostages to protest the school's ties to the Department of Defense. Phil and Daniel Berrigan, two Jesuit priests, torched draft records with napalm at a Maryland Selective Service center. In March American troops slaughtered scores of civilians at My Lai.
and his article grimly concludes

It's been a long haul since the Sixties and lessons of History have not been learned. Liberals still show themselves to be weak-kneed, spineless wimps and compliant stooges of the Ruling Class. Conservatives are Draconian power brokers, corrupt, mean-spirited liars, as always. It all leads to the destruction of our Rights and Freedom. They'd have us believe that the price of Freedom is Freedom itself.

Abbie Hoffman committed suicide April 12, 1989. At least that's the official story. At the time he had been regularly lecturing audiences about the CIA's covert activities, including assassinations disguised as suicide. His final words: "It's too late. We can't win, they've gotten too powerful."
                  http://open.salon.com/blog/snappy_sam/2009/03/29/abbie_hoffman


Three Mechanicals of Global Warming

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Pick your game: baseball, soccer, billiards or bicycle.  You play best when you feel the action in your muscles and bones - the mechanical physics of how things move.

As the world faces global warming it is crucial to know three mechanical concepts - the tipping point, the ratchet and the lever - all associate with the current global warming situation.


The Tipping point 

Children of the teeter-totter, or the see-saw, know tipping points.  You ride the balanced beam, up and down, feeling the gentle rising and falling…where you barely move or push to keep in balance.   Then with your feet off the ground you feel the heavier other side dropping as you rise to immobilization, and you can do nothing.  You are stranded at the very top of your play.  Both high and desperate with your heart in your throat - thrilled, trapped and educated all at once.  And the violent fear that the cruel heavy weight below suddenly leaves and we free-fall plunge to gravity pain. 

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We are discovering that we are seated across this beam — paired with a huge, massive, and growing monster — our feet have left the ground and that we are on the short end - immobilized and learning.  On the edge of painful lessons.  It is a fairly new realization that tipping points beget tipping points.  As if reaching the top of the teeter-totter we suddenly move onto another teeter-totter - totally unknown to us.  And we are at the very top of that one too, which is connected to another and another, and we do not know what they look like.

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The slight warming now, will beget greater warming later and faster. Arctic ice melt raises sea levels which cause Antarctic ice sheets to float off their landed holdings and melt faster releasing more water.  Warming then triggers triggers more water vapor heat, melting frozen methanes in the permafrosted Northern lands.

Carbon dioxide concentrations rise, water vapor increases with heat, and methane as it bubbles and melts, will generate more greenhouse heat than does CO2 alone and triggers more moisture in the atmosphere triggering more heat.  These are changes that move in on direction only.

The Ratchet

Nothing is going backwards.  Heating from CO2 increases quickly like a crank winder turning in one direction only.   More CO2 = more heat.  The removal and cooling takes thousands of  years.   All carbon dioxide added will not be subtracted in our lifetimes, nor our children’s nor our children’s children’s.  

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Like a ratchet wrench, ratchet lift or ratchet gear.. it works in one direction and stays at the new level it reaches.  With CO2, the major cause of warming, there is no known, no proven way of going backwards.

When on the painful end of a ratchet - like a medieval torture rack, the smart thing to do is stop as early as possible.  

The Lever 

Most all of us first heard about the lever from the ancient saying  “Give me a big enough lever and I can move the world”   Physically true for such a simple work amplifier; it can move anything with a screwdriver, pry bar, plank or giant beam. 

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We must think of leverage applied to human effort, political will power, as well as precisely defined areas of physical change.   The perfect lever is a targeted force applied by directed effort in the smartest possible way.  This is out greatest hope for the future. We must make the big lever then know what force to apply, where to work to change the world.

Greenhouse gases cause global warming, humans have the greatest leverage over limiting CO2.  Halting all CO2 emissions means halting all hydrocarbon combustion: no coal, no gas, no oil.     Know theGlobal warming can be Stopped.  Not fixed, but we can stop ratcheting up the heat.


Know the tipping points, stop the damage, leverage the change.

Keep playing the game.




Climate changes the equations of life and risk

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Behavioral economists like to quantify human behavior… going back to 1738 and the mathematician Daniel Bernouli.

Happiness researcher Dan Gilbert mentions Bernouli’s equation in a video lecture:

       Expected value of actions = (odds of gain) x (value of the gain)

We should use this to ponder our response to the challenge of human caused global warming and climate destabilization. We caused it, but we are unwilling to think that we can fix it, or mitigate or even adapt to it.

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Climate instability means that the odds of gain - our very future - are beginning to plummet. The odds are lower now than ever.

The value of the gain may be defined as our very lives and our future. We deny ourselves very much insight into our future - civilization expresses little insight into global warming. Right now the value we place on our lives and our future may be as high as could ever be attained. Put another way, one may increase the value of life gains individually, but could we possibly increase the value of life gains across the planet?

To fit the equation - with our future in doubt, our odds of gain are dropping - so then the value of the gain should rise. It most certainly will. As more climate pain and climate decimation arrives, then value of gain - life - will rise too. Or it should.

Paraphrasing Bernouli says the value of our actions will always be equal to the odds of survival (gain) times the value of the gain (life). If we cannot increase anything on the right side of the equation (odds or life), then the left side - the expected value of our actions - will fall accordingly.

Now as the rate of climate change is increasing - our odds are lowered; the power of any of our actions decreases - the required effort to make gain increase enormously.
We are fucking doomed.

We should accept the demise, or reapply effort to affect change.

We Are Probably Doomed

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Why we are doomed.  Doomed.   Global warming and climate destabilization.

What we have not yet learned is:  It is bad.  It is worse than we thought
It is unfolding faster than we thought.

Anything we do to affect change will take decades to notice
   (we really cannot see the effects of any positive action  - and negative actions make us feel better )

darkdawncrops.jpgHumans are poorly adapted to see long off dangers.

Our trusted media is abandoning us
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/04/science-coverage-imploding-at-cnn-beyond/

We have no intention of realizing the problem

Powerful interests don't want change

Powerful insterests will do anything they can to keep BAU

We have leaders that cynically sabotage

We are pretty much unable to change  - demonstrated that often

from 1989
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg12216613.000-politics-in-the-greenhouse-the-politicians-say-they-meanbusiness-about-coming-to-grips-with-the-greenhouse-effect--so-far-itsbeen-mostly-show-business-.html

The people who know how bad it really is, have the least power to affect change.

Humans are not a viable species.  Disjointed, quarrelsome, disunified. ALthough we can pull together for great and noble actions, this time requires total global unification.. which is not going to happen.

The people in power are unwilling to unify with other people in power.

Humans are not really civilized.  ALthough it seems to progress and we get better over the centuries, we are still violent, emotional and greedy  - and tolerate that in others even as we battle our fellows.

Churchill... "Americans will eventually do the right thing, after trying all other options first." 

Similarly - our entire species can often be good and smart and wise and can fight dangerous problems with success - but not always, and not at precisely the right times.






Nietzsche and AGW

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   That which does not kill us, makes us stronger -Nietzsche

 Nietzsche is just summarizing Darwin.

As it should be...        

In the face of AGW it is difficult to be positive...

New idea:   everything is unfolding as it should

AGW pace is perfect for humans to deal with because

Any slower pace of warming and we would not see it,

Any faster pace and there would be tumultuous panic.

This rate of change is perfect for humans to rise to the challenge,  it calls forth all our unified strength.

Thine, not mine.

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The kids already know;  It's not our future, it's theirs.

We think kids won't be prepared for the future.  Of course we can never know how to best prepare them for their challenges.

Hey parents, please don't tell them everything.  With current sustainability and resource constraints the human future will accept only a very small, highly adapted population.   Many scientists know this to be true, they just don't know when this will unfold.  

And I have no idea how to prepare kids - but I suspect and often am surprised to learn their solutions are starting to congeal.  For instance, they say they know they face big problems - but seem to have boundless hope and visions for a boundaryless world. 

 one young teenager's travel lesson  6 min video

http://www.ecologicalhope.org/zine/vol-1-no-1/#3  essay:
Our mistakes are abundant, our responsibilities great, by Maya Rose Goldman


http://www.heatisonline.org/contentserver/objecthandlers/index.cfm?ID=7203&method=full


Peak Peaks

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Our time has been the very best time to be alive, the very peak time for humans, certainly.  (Although discussing this would be fun)  Now starts our species decline or the beginnings of a new species.  Very interesting times from now on.  Happy to be here.  This is the peak.

Peak Civilization call it the year 2000 to 2050

Peak Oil  2010  2020   Lots of discussion on just when Peak Oil will be.

Peak human Exploration - Apollo Lunar missions  1960's and 70's - certainly nothing greater than that since

Peak optical exploration  - Hubble Space telescope

Peak Military War   WWII -  Although from the VietNamese perspective it could have been that war, but that may be over the peak.

Peak Medical - now and way into the future

Peak American Democracy  - Somehow the LBJ Presidency seems like a peak time for government, it just feels that way

Peak Technology    not yet - maybe soon 2050

Peak analog signal... The broadcast television signal today remains the most complex, widely used analog signal  in NTSC, PAL and SECAM television.  Now slowly disappearing.  Call it 2009

Peak Civilization  2000- 2050 ish

Peak Human genome Maybe now, or 2050  - toxins and viruses will mess things up after that.

Peak Global biological diversity 1700
-

Peak Digital Technology  < 2100

Peak Culture  

Peak Music Performance  Hendrix, The Who,
 


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